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By Kenny Fisher on Dec 2, GMT Oil prices have climbed sharply on Thursday, continuing the strong gains which marked the Wednesday session. A bullish head and shoulder is not completed until price breaks above the neck line. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been traders of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby team and some of the highest interest rates in the developed world keeping the Forex Zealand Dollar in demand. The later is the forum important in our zero percent interest rate world, and this has benefited both Aud and NZD. Neither the RBA nor the RBNZ have been particularly happy traders this and were no doubt hoping that the Traders Reserve would help them out as did just about every other central bankby finally delivering a rate hike. To digress a moment, in New Zealand, we have a saying. The FOMC sadly did not hike, continuing to be the equivalent of a monetary possum in the headlights. The effect was immediate with the USD sold against basically everything. No doubt provoking much hand-wringing at RBNZ Head Quarters. The NZD duly staged forum rallies, not just against the USD, but a slew of other currencies we shall deal with below. The RBNZ has attempted to limit the damage on their Trade Weighted Index forum by being very dovish in their MPC announcements yesterday. Although they did not cut rates they did say more cuts will be needed and the NZD was too high. As the independent settled in New York last night and Asia today, the USD has gradually eked back its losses helped by better than expected US Initial Jobless Claims. The last of momentum after events that have plagued FX Traders all year returning as the week closes. This confluence of events has seen the Kiwi trace out some rather bearish formations against some currencies. Including some outside reversals. This may, however, not tell the whole story. As readers know my assertion is that the Kiwi will be unable to maintain significant sell-offs as long, as it has some of the highest developed world yields. A slew of long term support lies below. The NZDJPY made an outside reversal day here on the FOMC. Resistance is at previous daily lows and the post FOMC breakdown. Above there at Meaningful independent does not appear until a double bottom. Here is a central bank with bigger forum on its plate than the RBNZ. The weekly chart tells a different story. Substantial resistance from the triangle apex sits around Support in the is forming the base. With a due not of deference to my Australian Brothers, I have always asserted that it has never made sense for a New Zealand Dollar to be worth the same as an Australian Dollar. AUD and NZD are both almost identical G10 high yielders, neighbours, and either dig things out off, or grow things on the ground, and sell them to the rest of the world. The things Australia dig out of the ground are usually more valuable than the things New Zealand grows on it. It is as simple as that. The DMA traders is next resistance with the previous daily low at support. In the big picture, AUDNZD has traded around for the last few years. Again appearances are deceptive. Independent daily chart below shows the cross having broken a rough trendline going back forex early June. On FOMC day Kiwi traced out a 19-year high against the CAD followed by two stunning reversal days. This pattern has continued today with NZDCAD near its lows at Resistance is at the trendline at and then Minor support at The weekly chart shows the NZDCAD barely holding long term support. The inverse head and shoulders formation I have spoken about previously remains intact, just. The caveat here is the huge outside reversal week we have had. NZDCAD opening within the range to the previous week, making new highs and then closing below the low of the past week. Otherwise known as a bearish engulfing formation. I acknowledge the importance of this from a technical perspective and also that a weekly close under would most likely negate the long term bullish structure. From a macro perspective, we also need to consider USDCAD and traders price of oil. From a shorter-term technical view, it looks universally looks weak. However, the longer term charts reveal the picture is not so clear-cut. Forex NZD is being driven by extraneous factors outside of its control but remains the highest yielding G10 independent. Nevertheless, for now, the Kiwi has most certainly had its wings clipped. Based in Singapore, Jeffrey has over 25 years experience in the financial markets, having traded currencies, options, precious metals and futures. Jeffrey started his career at Barclays Bank in New Zealand. However he has spent most of it in London and Asia. Jeffrey focuses on the Asia time zone across asset classes. A regular forex on business news TV and Radio, he is originally from New Zealand and holds an MBA from Cass Business School, London. First we saw prices crash through this level on OKCoin and other Chinese exchanges. You are advised to conduct your own independent research before making a decision. This website is an information site only. Accordingly, ForexNews makes no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account forum investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of forex particular person. You should obtain individual financial advice based on your own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of information independent this website Today is Fri, December 2, GMT Bond Market FX Words ForexNews. About Jeffrey Halley Based in Singapore, Jeffrey has over 25 years experience in the financial markets, having traded currencies, options, precious metals and futures.
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