Labor forex forum
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures. The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator. Above 50 signals industry expansion; below 50 indicates a contraction. Construction figures are an important indicator forum housing demand. The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks. Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems. Tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures. Work is usually performed on regular days of the week. A part-time employee will usually be entitled to the same employment conditions as a full-time employee, but on a pro rata basis compared to the full-time hours usually 38 per week prescribed under the applicable industrial instrument. The average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product GDP by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth. The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population. Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth. Non-Farm Payroll NFPalso known as Non-Farm Employment Change, is a fundamental indicator, which measures jobs added in the previous month Farm-related jobs are excluded from the report because they tend to be seasonal than non-agricultural jobs in general and not necessarily indicative of employment trends. Employees of the government, non-profit organizations, private households are also excluded from the report. The statistic is released on the first Friday of each month by the United States Department of Labor. Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total payrolls in any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees. Manufacturing Payrolls in the United States is reported by the U. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The indicator shows employment in manufacturing sector. An indicator of how the average level of pay is changing. The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percent change from the previous month. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate. During an economic recession, many workers often get discouraged and stop looking for employment, as a result, the participation rate decreases. The participation rate is an important metric to note when looking at unemployment data because unemployment figures reflect the number of people who are looking for jobs but are unable to secure employment. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index. Measures the total amount of profits earned by businesses with more than 20 employees before taxes have been taken out. Forex economic calendar is one of the main tools of both a guru and novice trader. The calendar comprises the most urgent and important economic news, including corporate profit reports, results of the meetings of financial regulators in different countries, government and commissions reports, and other With weekly and monthly calendar financial data, every trader can make a sound decision and make proper estimates. The MT5 financial calendar provides you with not only a summary of significant events but also the latest data on macroeconomic indicators in the European Union and seventeen countries, including the US, Canada, Australia, Russia, Japan, and New Zealand. The economic calendar is presented as a catalog containing data updated online. There is an option of requesting market information for a specific date. Using it, you will get a detailed report for a specified period of time The functionality of the interface allows you to select data on the country you are interested in, as well as to single out the most important events on the forex market All our current and potential clients are offered to sign up for our newsletter. Sign up for one of three packages and stay abreast of the current events in the world of Forex! The broadest measure of money supply in use by Eurozone nations. It includes all currency in circulation, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, debt securities up to 2 years, and the value of money market shares. A larger money supply reduces the purchasing power of the Euro and puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. However, because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply. Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. The headline figure is the percentage change in average spending per household from the previous year. Increases in household spending are favorable for the Japanese economy because high consumer spending generally leads to higher levels of economic growth. Higher spending is also a sign of consumer optimism, as households confident in their future outlook will spend more. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish. French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP. Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The amount of extra funds that a sector has available to provide for either direct and indirect lending purposes to other similar counter-parts. Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germanywhere each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items. The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal for the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result forex the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term. Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output and forex. The PMI survey is based on the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany, which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI serve as a good indicator for the overall economic situation in Germany as well as Eurozone. However, despite the timeliness of the report, Manufacturing PMI is not a big market mover. The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long-term manufacturing business conditions. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change. Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness. Summarizes the flow of goods and services, income payments, and transfers in and out of Canada. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, the Capital and Financial Accounts, deals mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a practical, non-investment basis. The Current Account tracks the trade balance exports and imports for goods and servicesincome payments such as interest, dividends and salaries and unilateral transfers aid, taxes, and one-way gifts. A positive value current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital from these components into Canada exceeds capital leaving the country. A negative value current account deficit means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a natural depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect Canadian dollars leaving the country to make payments in a foreign currency just as underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight. Canada has historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports particularly oil labor the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Canadian current account surpluses. There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released quarterly about two months after the reporting period. Additionally, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account production and trade figures are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting quarter, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data. But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the Canadian economy interacts internationally, breaking down these interactions into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. The Reserve Bank published its first Financial Stability Report FSR in October The Financial Stability Report is published six-monthly. In the Financial Stability Report we assess and report on the soundness and efficiency of the New Zealand financial system. Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change. Consumer Confidence labor the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion. The report also breaks down results into parts of the economy, giving a detailed picture of the consumer climate in Great Britain. GfK Consumer Confidence is one of the most closely watched surveys. The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term Consumer Confidence averages. On a global basis, the indicator is very important for the economy, as it reflects labor sentiments which formed the major portion of Great Britain GDP. The survey is conducted monthly by GfK, a market research organization, on behalf of the EU commission. The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession. The figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month. Index for consumer spending in Switzerland. The Consumption Indicator moves with changes in real consumer spending and can be used as a gauge of the strength of domestic demand. A rising indicator value reflects rising consumer spending, which generally leads to economic growth and potentially augur inflationary pressures to come. The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated using five specific indicators of spending and expressed in the form of an index. These indicators are: new car sales, business trends in retail, overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals in Switzerland, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions. The headline is the index value for the month. In the long term the average has been approximately 1. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Francewhere each Euro buys fewer forex and services. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters. The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly. CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume the fixed consumer basket. HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the USA, excluding workers in the farming industry. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish. Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure. Prices used are benchmarked to prices. Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures. A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation. On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn. Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption. Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US. Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy. Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release. Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction. Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery. The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful. A report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covering the entire USA. Regional Banks in forum Federal Reserve System gather anecdotal information based on surveys of executives, economists and market participants. The Beige Book summarizes this data into a relatively short document, giving a picture of economic trends and challenges faced by different parts of the nation. In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. Because each report is based on anecdotal information as much as statistics, it is subjective and may reflect opinions of district governors. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy. Spending for long-term assets such as factories, equipment, machinery, and buildings that permits the production of more goods and services in future years. A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole. The release is published every quarter, and about 60 days after the quarter ends. It is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and measures the alteration in the overall inflation-amended value real value of new capital investments produced by private businesses. Additionally, a change in the investment levels for businesses is usually a sign for future economic movement, including earning, spending and hiring. The official non-manufacturing PMI, released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing CFLPis based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications. It is the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry and if it is above indicates industry expansion, below, indicates contraction. Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information on current conditions on the housing market. The index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the Swiss economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of Swiss Gross Domestic Product. It is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The PMI is based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Eurozone GDP, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is a significant and timely indicator of both business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration. The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems hide Employment Change Event Employment Change Period Nov Previous Reading K Forecast K Actual Reading K Tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures hide Part Time Employment Change Event Part Time Employment Change Period Nov Previous Reading K; K Forecast Actual Reading K; K modern award usually defines a part-time employee as an employee who is engaged to work less than an average of 38 ordinary hours per week and whose hours of work are reasonably predictable, with a guaranteed minimum number of hours of work. The data provided by Statistics Canada is monthly and deseasonalized; this eliminates the impact of seasonal variations and makes it possible to compare data throughout the year. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems hide Non-Farm Employment Change Event Non-Farm Employment Change Period Nov Previous Reading K Forecast K Actual Reading K Non-Farm Payroll NFPalso known as Non-Farm Employment Change, is a fundamental indicator, which measures jobs added in the previous month Farm-related jobs are excluded from the report because they tend to be seasonal than non-agricultural jobs in general and not necessarily indicative of employment trends. The statistic is released on the first Friday of each month by the United States Department of Labor hide Change in Private Payrolls Event Change in Private Payrolls Period Nov Previous Reading K Forecast K Actual Reading K Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total payrolls in any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees hide Change in Manufacturing Pay Event Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Period Nov Previous Reading K Forecast K Actual Reading K Manufacturing Payrolls in the United States is reported by the U. Gold was down 0. The administrators and holders of the web resource do not warrant the accuracy of the information and shall not be liable for any damage directly or indirectly related to the content of the website It should be borne in mind that trading on Forex carries a high level of risk. Before deciding to trade on the Forex market, you should carefully consider losses that you may incur when trading online. You should remember that prices for stocks, indexes, currencies, and futures on the MT5 official website may differ from real-time values If you have decided to start earning money on Forex, having weighed the pros and cons, you can find a wide range of useful information including charts, quotes of financial instruments, trading signals, and tutorials on the web portal. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply Private Loans Low Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. Change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Benoit Coeure Speaks Low Benoit Coeure is a French economist who was appointed to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank ECB in ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks High Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe Speaks Medium Vlieghe was an economic assistant to Lord Mervyn King at the Bank of England. He then worked as a bond strategist and director at the Deutsche Bank. Later, he worked as a senior economist at Brevan Howard, a hedge fund based in London. On 28 Julyit was announced that he would replace David Miles in September in the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee MPC of the Bank of England Unemployment Rate Low The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems Household Spending Medium A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future Retail Sales Low Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year HIA New Home Sales Low The estimate measures consumer confidence. The estimate growth commonly has a positive effect on the currency rate BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks High Mr. Poloz was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 Junefor a term of seven years. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank. Poloz has over 30 years of public and private sector experience in financial markets, forecasting and economic policy. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. The HICP is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons. Its calculation, which relies on harmonised concepts, methods and procedures, reflects the development of prices in the individual states based on national consumption patterns. The HICP serves, among other things, to measure the convergence criterion of "price stability" as a basis for judging whether a Member State can participate in European economic and monetary union. The HICP is calculated for the Member States of the European Union EUNorway, Iceland and Switzerland. It is used to form aggregates for the euro zone Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices - MUICPfor the EU European Index of Consumer Prices - EICPand for the European Economic Area European Economic Area Index of Consumer Prices - EEAICP. The European Central Bank makes use of the MUICP in the context of its monetary policy to judge price stability within the euro zone CPI preliminary Medium Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term PMI Manufacturing Medium Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks Medium William C. Dudley is the president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice-chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee. He was appointed to the position on January 27,following the confirmation of his predecessor, Timothy F. Geithner, as United States Secretary of the Treasury GDP Price Index Low Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness The headline figure is the annualized percentage change GDP Second Release Medium Change in gross domestic product GDP is the main indicator of economic growth. As previously announced, this second estimate of GDP for Q is based entirely on output data and does not include information on the expenditure and income components of GDP Current Account Medium Summarizes the flow of goods and services, income payments, and transfers in and out of Canada. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, the Capital and Financial Accounts, deals mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a practical, non-investment basis The Current Account tracks the trade balance exports and imports for goods and servicesincome payments such as interest, dividends and salaries and unilateral transfers aid, taxes, and one-way gifts. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a natural depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect Canadian dollars leaving the country to make payments in a foreign currency just as underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight Canada has historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports particularly oil as the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Canadian current account surpluses There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting quarter, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. Traders should pay close attention to its release, which always has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar RBNZ Financial Stability Review High The Reserve Bank published its first Financial Stability Report FSR in October The Financial Stability Report is published six-monthly. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change ANZ Business Confidence Medium GfK Consumer Confidence Low Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. The survey is conducted monthly by GfK, a market research organization, on behalf of the EU commission Building Approvals Medium The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month Private Sector Credit Low Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows UBS Consumption Indicator Low Index for consumer spending in Switzerland. A rising indicator value reflects rising consumer spending, which generally leads to economic growth and potentially augur inflationary pressures to come The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated using five specific indicators of spending and expressed in the form of an index. These indicators are: new car sales, business trends in retail, overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals in Switzerland, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions The headline is the index value for the month. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year BOE Financial Stability Report Medium The Financial Stability Report is published twice a year under the guidance of the Financial Policy Committee. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items KOF Economic Barometer Medium The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly Unemployment Change Medium German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems Consumer Price Index Medium CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range Flash Core CPI Medium Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Eurostat bases this estimate on 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart — Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Apris the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact Consumer Price Index Low Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items Harmonized CPI Low The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Prices used are benchmarked to prices Raw Materials Price Index Medium The Raw Materials Price Index RMPI measures price changes for raw materials purchased by industries in Canada for further processing. They include transportation charges, net taxes paid, custom duties, as well as subsidies, if applicable Industrial Product Price Index Low Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation Core PCE Price Index Medium The "core" PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures PCE prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month Personal Income Low Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy Chicago Purchasing Manager Index Medium Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction Pending Home Sales Medium Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month Crude Oil Inventories Medium The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks Medium Jerome H. Powell took office as forum member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, Thus, he actively participates in the monetary policy development. Prior to his appointment to the Board, Mr. Powell was a visiting scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D. The Beige Book summarizes this data into a relatively short document, giving a picture of economic trends and challenges faced by different parts of the nation In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy Capital Spending Low Spending for long-term assets such as factories, equipment, machinery, and buildings that permits the production of more goods and services in future years PMI Manufacturing Low A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole The PMI is presented as an index with a value between Private Capital Expenditure High The release is published every quarter, and about 60 days after the quarter ends. Additionally, a change in the investment levels for businesses is usually a sign for future economic movement, including earning, spending and hiring Markit Final Manufacturing PMI High The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. When the PMI is below this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. Flash figures are released approximately 6 business days prior to the end of the month. Final figures overwrite the flash figures upon release and are in turn overwritten as the next Flash is available. The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is concluded from a monthly survey of about purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry and if it is above indicates industry expansion, below, indicates contraction BOJ Board Member Makoto Sakurai Speaks Low PMI Manufacturing Medium A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid Nationwide House Price Index Low Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. The index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices Retail Sales Low Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year PMI Manufacturing Medium A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole The PMI is presented as an index with a value between PMI Manufacturing Low A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole The PMI is presented as an index with a value between Unemployment Rate Low The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems PMI Manufacturing Low The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration PMI Manufacturing High A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems Unemployment Claims High Continuing Claims Medium Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment RBC Manufacturing PMI s. Survey of about purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Above indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The values for the index can be between 0 and Values over 50 generally indicate an expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction Retail Sales Medium Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year Gross Domestic Product Medium The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand Unemployment Rate High The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems Employment Change High Tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures Part Time Employment Change Medium modern award usually defines a part-time employee as an employee who is engaged to work less than an average of 38 ordinary hours per week and whose hours of work are reasonably predictable, with a guaranteed minimum number of hours of work. A part-time employee will usually be entitled to the same employment conditions as a full-time employee, but on a pro rata basis compared to the full-time hours usually 38 per week prescribed under the applicable industrial instrument Participation Rate Low The participation rate is the percentage of the total number of people of labour-force age years and over that is in the labour force either working or looking for work. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth The headline figure is the percentage change in output per hour Unemployment Rate High The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems Non-Farm Employment Change High Non-Farm Payroll NFPalso known as Non-Farm Employment Change, is a fundamental indicator, which measures jobs added in the previous month Farm-related jobs are excluded from the report because they tend to be seasonal than non-agricultural jobs in general and not necessarily indicative of employment trends. The statistic is released on the first Friday of each month by the United States Department of Labor Change in Private Payrolls Medium Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total payrolls in any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Medium Manufacturing Payrolls in the United States is reported by the U. The indicator shows employment in manufacturing sector Average Hourly Earnings Medium An indicator of how the average level of pay is changing.
American history is littered with examples of classified information pointing us towards aggression against other countries—think WMDs—only to later learn that the evidence was wrong.
There cannot be a wrong unless there is something that is right to compare it to.
Support your thesis using material and arguments from the websites above.
Mood, voice, and attitude are all closely related to tone, and these are similarly big picture questions.
When the Representative is One man, then is the Common-wealth a Monarchy: when an Assembly of All that will come together, then it is a Democracy, or Popular Common-wealth: when an Assembly of a Part onely, then it is called an Aristocracy.