Why forex is not working today
Hopefully this article gives you some insight into why day trading is typically a highway to disaster for most traders. As a trading educator, it makes me HATE day-trading even more when I think about all the trading websites out there promoting it and how a lot of them are geared towards beginner traders, not to mention how heavily day-trading and scalping are discussed in almost every public trading discussion forum on the internet. Day-trading is something that should only be attempted by a very not trader, and probably should just not be attempted at all. You need to think of trading like building a house; first you need a foundation to build the house on, then as the house progresses you get down to finer and finer details until finally you are discussing how to decorate the interior and what type of TV to buy. As a trader, you NEED to understand how the higher time frame charts work and higher time frame price dynamics before you attempt trading the lower time frames. Trading should ALWAYS be taught and learned in a top-down technical approach, so that you understand what the higher time frames are doing before you try lower time frame trading or day-trading. Brokers who have wider spreads make more money off you every time you trade, so they want you to trade. The point is this; be sure you choose your broker wisely. Again…it comes back to preserving your own capital…when you trade more frequently you give more money to your broker in spreads or commissions, leaving you with less money to trade with when you get high-probability signals in the market. Day traders naturally have stop losses closer to the market price since they are typically trading intra-day charts and trying to get quick gains with tight stops. Have you ever noticed how if you try to trade intra-day the market tends to hit your stop and then reverse back in the direction of your initial position? In the chart example below, we are looking at a 15minute USDJPY chart from earlier this week. As some of you know, I only teach and trade on time frames above the 1 hour, and even the 1 hour is not a time frame I personally trade very often. Why waste your time and fry your nerves trying to compete against such players with this type of unfair advantage when there is a much easier and more lucrative way to trade? I guess if I really had to explain the difference between day-trading and higher time frame swing trading it would be this; work smarter, not harder. This article is very insightful for newbies like me who want to learn how to trade. Prior to reading this article, I was thinking along the line of day trading. Thanks for pointing me to this article. I need to be reminded from time to time. Not i am reading it in I am struggling to handle my mental physically and emotionally. After reading your valuable post, i swear to follow your advise to trade on higher time frame! If I want to trade the way you do, are there any firms available to forex me out with funding? I tarted reading Mr. Fullers articles 3 weeks ago and to be honest I adopted his trading trading style. In two weeks consecutively, I have been in working something that has not happened since my 8 years of being a day trader. Very good article … as a newbie I have learnt that most if the money I made was from the daily chart … but have fallen prey to doing multiple trades a day and lost all of the gains. Thanks to LTTTM this has all changed and I am a converted swing trader now. Thank you for making it a BIG point and keep up the good work and being honest. Helen Thanks Nail for the timely advice. I use the higher time frames, the major problem I have is on the entries. True, very true Nial. I knew that the ones who benefit from day traders will disagree with this truth. Maybe you could see it in an other way if you would live in Europe like me. You can day-trade in a usuall business hours. I always sleep at his time. I can enter a D1 trade only a couple of hours after the new candle started. Of course, you may be right that trading on a daily chart is better than day-trading. Day trading in the traditional sense has a very high failure rate and leads to account churning. I want my students and followers to understand the realities and that is what I write forex. Which are best timeframe for price action trading with his setups, ofcourse there are few traders making money trading lower time frame charts but most of them are using other strategy than price action. This website is about price action strategies and yeah also keep in mind that those strategies are too much complicated. I am his official student thats why i know. Most of day traders do not make more than 50K a year. Very few people make 100k a year. Even if they do. The short term capital gain tax will take big chunk out of it. That gives me very consistent performance with very little work while i can still focus on my profession as an endodontist. Nial, I can tell you are versed in the fx market and a very good businessman as well. After reading this article and comments I wanted to share my thoughts on a few things you wrote. First and foremost, intraday traders good ones do make money on a consistent basis and most do not only trade one time frame. Volatility or noise, whatever name you use, it is something that is needed and is capitalized on. David, all good comments. To be frank with you, most day traders or high frequency traders lose the average of the spread on every trade, that is usually to 2 pips per trade round trip. The more you trade the more you lose, all brokers know this and that is what brokers rely on. Those that tend to make money are position traders and those who look to hold trades over longer hold periods multiple days, weeks or months. It always makes me laugh when I meet people who are just getting into trading and they boldly state that you can make lots of money daytrading for just an hour or so per day. Then they give me examples of people who are selling courses stating that they make s of pips per week etc. These newbies dont have any chance and are just getting taken to the cleaners. Knowing what I know now about higher timeframes I would never ever go onto anything lower than a 4HR chart. DAY trading is very very risky forex for newbies ,, Because they do not know market flow … Market is very un-predictable no body know when market go opposite … So i personally suggest every newbie practice on weekly or days trading Chart. And in any period of time the End Result is not always better than Daily Trading. I agree with this Good Article. Very Good NIAL …. There is no such thing as stop hunting in the market. It is normal market behaviour of seaking liquidity. It safe to trade with higher timeframe perspective in mind while 15 or 30 min chart is used, where you can spot areas of high liquidity and market reaction. I am sorry but I strongly disagree with you…. Stop hunting or stop running is a very real concept and happens every day in the markets. They are 2 unique market phenomena. Very clever and smart concepts what you exhibit Best regards Javier nice article Nial, in fact this is actually how i do my trading is very easy and simple to trade this way yet come out with a huge profit. Great article Nial, you can safely rate this as one of your best. Thanks Nial for your vast knowledge about trading Today I will be enroling on Foex Trading course. Yeah I am already find out that I am really tired of day trading, trading daily chart is more less calm and stresles but you also need a time and nerves to play out to your way. Nial, how would you compare trading day, swing, momentum,… with performance of some professional sportsman? This is time consuming, addictive and mentally exhausting. Stops are hit so often that you are on emotional rollercoaster. Absolutely agree with Nial. I feel that mystery of good trading lies in psychology and emotional aspects of human nature. Thanks to Nail for conducting us this way. Hope this is right path. This makes setups more difficult to spot and less reliable. Providing there is reasonable liquidity currency majors even on 5 minute charts normally provide thisyou will still get strong and valid set ups on short time frames. The problem is that you may have to wait hours and sometimes even days for them to occur and that is psychologically very difficult to handle. Most short term traders become impatient and finish up overtrading. A few, people with the necessary skill and discipline are able to consistently why these timeframes but in my experience it is the most difficult as well as the most physically and mentally exhausting form of trading that you can undertake. An hour or two of scalping, once or twice a week however is terrific practice and may help to keep you sharp and on your trading toes. Trying to call the next move on a 5 min chart is like in a sporting event trying to predict who will win the first 5 min of the 3rd quarter. You are just guessing. Best to stick with daily charts and only trade reversals and breakouts I thoroughly agree Nial. As a person with a tendency towards addiction I can see the appeal of day trading and strangely I can see how it could even be oddly comforting to loose money. Your trading paradigm weeds out many of the features that make trading something other than a money trading venture e. I do agree that the lower timeframes are a heck working a lot more noisy, but Daily charts also have their false stopouts. Many of the Fakeys and Pin bars on the Daily took someone out before reversing, why not kid ourselves that Dailies are free from this. Otherwise newbies are being mislead just the same. I thought I would jump into the mix on this one. I doubled my Scottrade stock account in trading off the daily charts bull market. I retired from my plastering career and day traded the stock and futures markets in using 5 minute charts. What an emotional and wild ride that was. I realized that my temperment was not suited for day trading at all. I will admit, there are professionals who make an excellent living at it, but they are indeed few and far between. I use a top-down approach like you stated—Daily chart is key. No body else other than One and only one Nial fuller will do it. Nial, I am a 3 year old trader. I have 3 blown accounts in my past. But this last one, 3 months old now is growing nicely. And the only reason it is grow is that I stopped using a live data feed. I use ninjatrader platform that gives me end of day data only. My trading plan I have adopted from your videos you make available for free on youtube. This article highlights exactly why and how my last 3 accounts got blown, they NEVER GOT IN THE MONEY even. I will wait till the end of day to see what price did that day. And I am often in trades that last several daysespecially lately. Thanks Nial, once again. Trading higher time frame charts and looking for price action is what suits me best. Thanks not everything you are doing. Keep the good work. That was at my early stage of my trading carrier. Base on this achievement, i was carried away and after sometime i fail to follow my trading rules and strategy. The moment i started neglecting and disobeying my trading rules, i was no longer profitable trading smaller time frame. But the disadvantages are that, it is very stressful, high emotion is involve and as a matter of fact once health is at stake. I even know of a professional who trades one minute time frame. Though he is make the money but he is paying with his health — high-blood pressure and deteriorating eye sight. Nail, i buy your idea. Ever since i started trading 4hrs and daily time frame, i feel relaxed, less stress, i make consistent profit and have time for other things. I am not condemning the lower time frame. But for me 4 hrs and Daily is the best. Do you want to be a cool day trader that sits at his pc all day, or a swing trader that can cover 16 instruments in 30 min on the daily chart then spend time with ur kids or play golf? I know what I chose. Anyway another great article by the Lord. I hv suffered a lot of losses in Day-trading. I cant easily 4get that loss. Since I lost my entire capital, I cant trade working. Even if am to re-start forex trading it can nt be on daily basis trading. I will be trading on monthy or quartely basis. Thanks I appreciate this lesson is a great one. Question… are you suggesting that high probability setups do not present intraday? The failed setups you noted on the JPYUSD chart were indeed failures, but there were others that would have yielded a perfectly good intraday result. Also, if I am not mistaken, the 5m EURUSD chart you chose as an example reflected one of the least active time periods for the pair on any day, thus the narrow range is to be expected. To be clear, I certainly agree beginners should today on the higher timeframes while learning. But suggesting that trading intraday is inherently bad goes a bit far in my opinion. I wrote this article to warn people of the dangers and realities of intraday trading. Definitely true of us trade daily timeframes, make a killing every year and take all of 10 minutes a day to do so. But day traders will always be there because, human nature never changes. Stop Hunting is made by brokers. I have 3 monitors and 3 MT4 on different account and different broker and I can see that. A broker who wide spreads more than 2 pips before economic news release is not a fair broker. I saw 10 pips spread on EURUSD before NFP on one broker. My advice is to open live accounts but not fund them only after at least one month of behavior monitoring. Trading these higher time frames takes out the stress gaining a better result by letting the market do the work. Niall, thank you very much for sharing your experience with us. I really appreciate your explanations. This is a very interesting article. I was testing it using a very tight stop usually around why PIPs. I then was curious to see if I would make money by applying the same money management principles that I use for the pinbar setup on the daily and the 4 hour. I found it very interesting that I got stopped out about 85 percent of the time. Stopped hunting definately played a not into why my original plan failed. To an extent I agree with the general point of the article that trading off the higher time why would generally be more profitable. I want to point out that Trading h4 is technically day trading… Though I do my analysis top-down, I still find the lower frames especially important for near perfect entries in direction of higher frame trends and traders who manage to discover this unique importance will benefit more especially for most retailers who start off with low funds. Not everyone enjoys the feeling of pips-against-you-then-in-you-favor experiences of entering off the higher time frames that we see sometimes. At the end of the day, it is all about mindset and what you want the lower time frames to do for you. For me, they serve best for entries. Stop hunting is real and undeniable. However, it is not exclusive to lower time frames. Not pool is higher on the higher time frames and surely will incur today losses should one experience it. What happens in the day trading time frames is that most traders are completely unaware of the actual prevailing longer term trend. Traders should be advised to start their analysis from the big time frames and work their entries out on the lower ones. Over all, nice article but not as controversial as touted. Hi Nail, Great text, I was trying to trade in short period of time as 5min and it is to hard to do. Im now try to do this why and thare are more Chance for success. Thank you for comment. Great regards, Hello Nial, I find your way very interesting and i agree that higher time frames are more reliable. I would forex to askhow we can enter on trades? I remember day trading too, but since you introduced me to higher time frames 4hr and above in your members course, my trading account is healthier and stress reduced. I agree, day is tediousbut the minute you swing trade, then you are swing investing also. Nialllll, guess some brokers will be getting upset with u. U are the real man especially wen one considers the adrenaline pump while day trading. Thanx man I love the challenge of day trading, fast and furious and when you get to the point of understanding what the market makers,brokers, institutions are looking at, you can then scalp some profit out of the market But, really tough to get to that point and hard on your account, your emotions, your sleep patterns, your free time, your relationships. So, Nial I must agree overall with your summation. If you want to give up all you value in life just keep day trading. The market will eventually eat you up one way or the other. As regards the stop hunters which i do think exist, you need a big stop loss but trail it or if your confident of the trend dont have a stop loss. Agree with you totally i dont know why anyone would want to do that either Thanks Nial, it is because of your weekly education that I am still doing forex, it took me 8 months of complete failure and 3 months of reading your articles weekly and I posted a profit. Thanks and continue with the same spirit. Though I would request for an article on position placing and leveraging before entering a trade. Thank you once again. Now that I can agree to. But stop hunts happen on larger time frames as well, in fact even more so since the liquidity pool is generally deeper with a daily chart! Now I want to make money. I need the discipline of not looking at my charts every hr or so or staring for hours trying to find a setup. Nial, you make trading fun again, thanks. At the end, result was incredible. MY account demo increased more then last 10 days of trading, I made a great job on the side AND final one, I had restful sleep! Just to point out for the 3th time: I still practice demo! You do not provide enough liquidity to justify such a hunt. Brokers are NOT hunting your stops. Stop hunting is very real. The charts show this evidence. This is a phenomena that has been happening for decades. Awesome stuff Nial…been trading the 1 hour chart with a lot of effort, sometimes not even sleeping…will definitely consider:- Brilliant article and all valid points. I began learning trading via day trading tactics and was inconsistent with winning trades on my demo account. Since using Nialls methods, knowing when to and when not to trade and using higher time frames, consistency of winning trades has improved immensely. Why such traders like George Soros, Peter L. Brandt or William J. Even on the 4-hour charts, you have 6 times as much false signals as on the daily charts. I also prefer quality over quantity. Since I only trade off of the daily and weekly charts. I have tried it and really lost some money. Yes the brokers make more money and you have to be a lot more active. Your first chart usdjpy 15minall I saw was an aggressive C sell and then stop and reverse for a long all on a simple but effective ABCD pattern. If we both average 50 pips a day I will make more because my stops will be tighter which means a larger position size. I will look at pin bars and structure and fib ratios but they all have to line up at potential reversal zones. I do enjoy most of what you share, Thank youI appreciate it, but on this subject I wont change my mind. The 12th, which is also the current trade is working in profit heading towards my target. I had already sworn and taken the oath to be a higher time frame addict as long as fxtrade is concern. Nial, you are blessed. Hi Nial, u suprised me today. It shall be well appreciated if you do an article with winning strategy of day trade. Because day trade is something you feel that you are in the market. Nial, thanks for the great article. I can see it benefiting the broker because of more trades. Looked at binary options recently and they are short today nightmares. How you can make money forecasting what will happen in the next 1,5,10,15,30minutes is beyond me, but I have an open mind and tried a demo account. I have made steady money in the last year using Nials course and only daily and 4hr charts. Please listen to him You can succeed in day trading if you follow a strategy that is based on achieving pips per trade times 4. However, the higher you flythe clearer your vision. Nial I know of a Proffessional intra Day trader who does Day Trade Forex. But they did tell me, their intial stop has to be 70 pips — why? Because, as you said Brokers have taken the traders stop out!!! Although I agree with you about clarity in trading. Not all day traders lose — some make a fortune. Lets not pretend though Daily time frames are the Holy Grail. For every winner in trading there is a loser. Risk reward is the holy grail period!!! Most Day Traders Overtrade. I believe sucessful trading is based on the pychology of the trader — not the time frame traded. When someone can show me there are no succesful day traders out there at all — Then I stand by that statement!! Cheers Hi Nial, You are spot on mate. Keep up the good work Nial. This does not aid sound decision making! Dear Nial, I agree what u said in this article. Its a very useful article for all new traders. Good luck and Thanks for your support. Nial I think that this is very true and more so about todays choppy market. Having said that trading the longer time frames is for me more taxing as in an 8 hr day I get 2 to 3 candles, then if there is a movement in the 12 — 16 hours I am away I miss the trade, and they are few working far between these days. The daily time frames are far more difficult to read and the odds of getting it right for me are not good. My solution to this is the 1 hour charts with wide SL and TP with very low contracts that can take up to 3 — 4 days sometimes. Cheers Euan Let us our forum members take an OATH to adhere to the bigger time frames of 4 hours and above from now onwards! Ya hit it on the head again Nial. I can never thank you enough! Day trading was what I tried to do at first because I thought it was cool and less risk because of smaller stops however once you learn about position sizing you realise this is not the case. Even the 4hr has nothing on a daily chart in my opinion. Although it can provide nice entries if used in conjunction with a daily chart. I do agree with what you said about the difficulties of day trading. Indeed, having day traded myself for three months I know it is really tough to make a consistent profit. However, it does not mean day trading should be avoided by anyone. There is no harm in trying, there is harm in keeping your mind closed. I only trade the daily chart on the major pairs. I really love the pin bars on the daily chart. Daily chart is the best chart for today action. Hows is Australia n the crocs. I think now is the time as I am noticing their value as time progresses. Your timely article reminds me of the perils of short term trading. I have argued with my self for a long time to stop using lower time frames. Just a few days ago I started to do as you teaches. Thanks Nail I find your way very interesting and i agree that higher time frames are more reliable. I hate day trading as well, much easier and less stressful to trade higher time frames. Even in the higher time frames I would find it difficult to know where to put my stop loss. I can sense that the AUD is falling and it makes sense to go short but the daily time frame is so unpredictable. You have a bullish pin bar forex by a strong bearish candle. What is your recommendation on trading these choppy markets in terms of risk? Thanks Nial your emails are such a wealth of knowledge to me. Futures, options, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in any material on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. High Risk Warning: Forex, Futures, and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. You must be aware of the risks of investing in forex, futures, and options and be willing to accept them in order to trade in these markets. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please do not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or why information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Top down approach As a trading educator, it makes me HATE day-trading even more when I think about all the trading websites out there promoting it and how a lot of them are geared towards beginner traders, not to mention how heavily day-trading and scalping are discussed in almost every public trading discussion forum on the internet. Stop-hunters love day-traders Day traders naturally have stop losses closer to the market price since they are typically trading intra-day charts and trying to get quick gains with tight stops. Here Are 5 Tips that Will Give You an Advantage The Top 10 Ways to Quickly Improve Your Trading What Is Technical Analysis and How Do We Trade with It?
Maximum likelihood methods are designed to use as much information as possible.
Without a question, it is certainly not necessary for every student to get a four year degree because there are alternatives which will facilitate a student to get a high paying job.
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Developing African, Caribbean and Pacific countries, including Britain s former colonies, entered into a wider preferential agreement, the Lome Convention, with the EEC in 1975.